Ultimate Team fans believe that EA Sports has changed the FC 24 pack odds after players noticed a difference in probability when the entire TOTY squad was released.
Due to gambling laws in most countries, EA Sports had to bring in visible odds that showcase the likelihood of packing certain items back during FIFA 19.
However, gamers have noticed discrepancies over the last few days, suggesting they are being adjusted. So, let’s dive into the situation, what has happened, and why it may have took place.
Players Notice Pack Odds Change in FC 24
Ultimate Team players have noticed that the pack odds in FC 24 have been adjusted over the last few days. This was spotted by many in the community, with the Premium TOTY Pack being a prime example.
On Wednesday, when only the TOTY defenders were in packs, the odds of getting one of these items were at 5.3%. Now, with all Team of the Year items available, the probability has gone down to 2.9%.
Typically, adding more of that item should not cause the odds to drop, but in fact, adding more items would generally increase the probability, not decrease it.
Unless, a different system of calculation is being used. Let’s dive into why this could have happened.
Why the Pack Odds Could Have Changed
One possible explanation is that EA Sports calculates the odds using a system called “varied probability.” However, this is speculation, so take all of this with a pinch of salt.
For those who do not know, this essentially means the probability of getting one specific item could be higher or lower compared to another, leading to a varied or differential probability distribution.
For example, while Earps and Mbappé both have TOTY items, the Frenchman would have a lower probability as he is more popular and powerful in the game. The developers likely take into account these factors when assigning odds.
As a showcase, let’s pretend that you have 10 items, each with a 0.14% chance of being packed. This would equate to a total of 1.4% chance of packing one.
However, if you had items that have a lower chance of obtaining than 0.14%, this would bring the overall probability down. Even if one of the 10 items had a 0.10% chance, this would bring the overall odds down to 1.36%.
So, while there are technically more TOTY items in packs, the midfielders and attackers could have a lower probability of being pulled. This would result in the pack odds decreasing.